Wendigo is faster than The New Lion. Perhaps there is a little bit of poetic licence needed with that headline, but the first point to make about Wendigo’s run in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury is that he recorded a faster top speed than the winner. He clocked 34.65 mph compared to the 34.56 mph recorded for The New Lion. In reality, Dan Skelton’s charge was finishing in a hack canter and it is highly likely that he could have run quicker had he needed to, but Wendigo was the fastest horse in the field on the speed gun. He isn’t going to meet The New Lion at Cheltenham, but the data from Total Performance Data (TPD) would offer some significant hope that he will improve for the step up to 3 miles in the Albert Bartlett.
Firstly, his run-out speed (the speed measurement taken 2-seconds after a horse has crossed the finish line) was 26.78 mph, the best in the race. That measurement always needs to have some context added to it because many of the runners were allowed to coast home after the last when it became clear that they weren’t likely to hit the frame. At both Ludlow and Wetherby, where he was in command on the run-in, his run-out speed dropped significantly. The run-out speed figure from Newbury would suggest that he had energy left at the end of his race and that is significant when we add it to his stride frequency data.
Whilst we do need to acknowledge the fact that The New Lion was the faster horse in the closing stages at Newbury, Wendigo was a clear “next best”. I’d also point to the fact that Wendigo rallied in the closing stages once he was switched away from the inside of the hurdles track. When we examine his average stride frequency, we can see that it decreased from a race peak of 2.22 strides per second in the 17th furlong to 2.15 and 2.12 per second in furlongs 19 and 20. However, both Wendigo and The New Lion increased their stride frequency in the final furlong once they were switched away from the inside of the course. For that reason, we can suggest with a fair degree of confidence that the ground was the reason for the drop in pace, rather than Wendigo tiring. His stride frequency data in the closing stages at Newbury would suggest that the extended 3-mile trip will be within his range at Cheltenham.
TPD has Jumps Fluency Data for his starts at Newbury and Hexham and that would be a slight cause for concern. He lost an average of 6.1% of his speed over his hurdles at Hexham in October and then an average of 6.4% at Newbury. For comparison, Battle Born Lad and The New Lion both lost an average of just 3.5% when winning those races. That’s not ideal, but the step up in trip may help and if you are going to find a course to suit, the New Course at Cheltenham, where there are only 2 hurdles in the last 7-furlongs, is the place to do so.
Wendigo has the speed necessary to be competitive at this level. He recorded top speeds of 35.68 mph (Ludlow), 35.03 mph (Hexham) and 34.65 mph (Newbury), so in the unlikely event that the ground came up on the quicker side at Cheltenham, he should still possess the necessary turn-of-foot to lie up with the pace. For comparison, the other contenders in the market who have run in the UK have clocked similar top speeds; Jet Blue 35.63 mph (Cheltenham), Intense Approach 36.01 mph (Musselburgh) and Derryhassen Paddy 34.47 mph (Uttoxeter).
It is very hard to be able to make a comparison between the form of the Irish horses and the British-trained runners at this stage, especially when plenty of them will be stepping up to 3 miles for the first time and, as such, are open to improvement for doing so. However, we can say with confidence from the data that Wendigo should improve for 3-miles, he has been doing his best work at the end of his races and he has the necessary speed to be competitive at a track that should suit. I wouldn’t dream of giving Gavin Sheehan advice, but, if he came to the stands side rail at Cheltenham, that may help Wendigo to maximise his stamina as he increases his stride frequency in the closing stages.
Information provided by Total Performance Data.
