With the much-anticipated Cheltenham Festival fast approaching, I’ve been studying the form and the markets to identify a few horses who could outrun their odds and potentially spring a surprise. Who knows, the 200,000/1 multiple might land!
APACHE TRIBE – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 18/1 (Generally Each Way)
The Festival’s novice three-mile hurdle can be difficult to assess and it often produces double-figure-priced winners — eight of the last ten have returned at double-figure odds, including two at 33/1 and one at 50/1. That’s partly because many runners are still improving, and the step up in trip can bring marked progression, allowing less-fancied horses to close the gap on the better-rated ones. With that in mind, it can be sensible to look beyond the market principals, even though they have clear claims.
Among the alternatives, Noel Kelly’s APACHE TRIBE is the one that interests me most. He won his point by four lengths, beating the respectable Treasure Memory, and then won a Listowel bumper by sixteen lengths. He dominated at Ayr on his hurdling debut over 2m4½f, where he jumped neatly for a newcomer and came clear to win by thirteen lengths. He’s been impressive in how smoothly he’s travelled through his races and how quickly he’s put them to bed with minimal fuss. He looks like three miles will pose no issues and he isn’t short of speed either.
Both of his Rules wins have been in ordinary races, so he will need to improve again to be competitive at Cheltenham. However, he looks talented and could have any amount of improvement to come. He also appears to be well regarded, having been well supported in the market twice, and his trainer has campaigned him with care.
HOME BY THE LEE – Stayers Hurdle (40/1 Generally Each Way)
The Stayers’ Hurdle once again does not look a particularly strong race, with several of the main contenders having questions to answer. Teahupoo is a worthy favourite after winning twice this season and looks certain to go well, but he failed to defend his crown last season as a short-priced favourite when losing out to Bob Olinger, who has his chance again. Honesty Policy enjoyed a fantastic campaign last year, winning Group 1s at Aintree and Punchestown before making a good return at Ascot. He may well be the better value towards the head of the market, but that does hinge on him improving on the form of his only run this season, which he looks capable of. Ma Shantou will need to continue his progress, but he loves Cheltenham and stays well, so he has a chance too.
The rest look far less convincing, so it may be worth taking a chance on Joseph O’Brien’s HOME BY THE LEE at a big price. He has had several attempts in this race without disgracing himself and has plenty of strong Graded form, including finishing third in the race in 2024. He also hammered last year’s winner Bob Olinger in the Grade 1 Savills over Christmas in the same year. He can be a quirky character, as he often shows in his races, and he seemed to have fallen out of love with the game before returning to the winner’s enclosure at Gowran Park in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle.
That was a really impressive performance, staying on strongly in very deep ground to defeat Staffordshire Knot, who had won his previous two races and has since won a Grade 2. Home By The Lee was giving his younger rival 9lb that day but showed a gritty attitude to battle back and win. He is eleven years of age and, admittedly, does not always travel or jump with fluency. However, he stays all day and, if he gets into a rhythm, he can outrun his odds, especially if the ground is soft or worse.
LA CONQUIERE – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (16/1 Generally Each Way)
The market is dominated by Irish challengers, namely Bambino Fever and Oldschool Outlaw, who are closely matched on form. The latter beat the Mullins six-year-old by half a length when they met at Naas in December and has since been purchased by the mighty J.P. McManus, who rarely gets it wrong with his big-money moves. Both bring strong form, particularly Bambino Fever, who won the Festival bumper last season under Jody Townend. They both look sure to play a major role, but neither appears bulletproof and, as we have seen countless times in recent years, this race is open to shock results. Last year, for example, the hot favourite Sixandahalf travelled beautifully through the race before being run down late by 16/1 shot Air Of Entitlement, while Golden Ace defeated Jade De Grugy and the well-fancied Brighterdaysahead in 2024.
A partnership that knows what it takes to win this race at a double-figure price is Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan. They have enjoyed a fantastic season, with the Lambourn trainer having his finest campaign to date. They teamed up to land this contest with You Wear It Well at 16/1 in 2023 and look to have a live contender again in the seven-year-old LA CONQUIERE. She has actually run to a better level than Bambino Fever this season on RPRs, is only just short of equalling Oldschool Outlaw’s rating, and she convincingly beat her when an excellent second in the Aintree Mares’ bumper.
La Conquiere has made a bright start to life over hurdles, defeating smart bumper performer Dream Shadow on debut at Uttoxeter, with Fergal O’Brien’s mare winning her next two starts. She then improved again with a stylish three-and-a-half-length victory in a Listed novice at Newbury, where she picked up strongly to quicken clear of Charisma Cat, who is a smart horse herself. Her jumping was excellent, gaining over six lengths on the field that day, and she recorded the highest finishing speed, which tallies with her trainer’s comments as he holds her in high regard for both speed and ability.
On her latest start at Ascot, she stepped into Grade 2 open company and was only narrowly denied by a more experienced mare who received 2lb. She still acquitted herself with plenty of credit, that run should stand her in good stead, and she may well be better suited by a bigger field. I can see her running very well and wouldn’t put anyone off backing her each way.
Another big-priced contender to note is Kingston Queen, although she may have an alternative option at Kelso.
QUILIXIOS – Champion Chase (20/1 Generally Each Way)
Henry De Bromhead’s gelding can be hit-and-miss, leaving punters unsure quite what to expect each time he turns up. He is more exposed than several rivals in the Champion Chase market, but there is no doubt he has the raw talent to make a real impact.
A high class hurdler who landed the Triumph in 2021, he has carried that ability over fences. He has plenty of strong form over fences, notably bolting up at Naas, putting seven and a half lengths between himself and the subsequent Champion Chase winner Marine Nationale. In last season’s Champion Chase he was mounting a powerful challenge when coming down at the last, with the front pair nearly twenty lengths clear of Jonbon. It is hard to say whether he would have won, but it was still a huge effort.
This season has not been straightforward, with a few setbacks, but the vibes from Knockeen are positive and there is nobody better than De Bromhead at getting a horse spot on for the Festival. QUILIXIOS has also shown more than once that he can run very well fresh. There are doubts about most, if not all, of his rivals and if he can return in similar form to last year, he could be a major player in the Wednesday showpiece.
Odds correct at time of posting – 3:55pm Friday 20th February
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Please note that although Matt has uploaded the tips, he is not our Racing Club Insider – the insider will remain anonymous!
