With the highly anticipated Cotswolds showdown now just a week away, punters are faced with the familiar dilemma of whether to side with the market principals or search for value elsewhere. While there are a few compelling favourites, some certainly make less appeal at their current prices.It is rarely a wise strategy to oppose favourites trained by some of the sport’s leading operators , but I have identified three who look vulnerable on the balance of their recent form and do not represent great value in what appear to be open contests.
FINAL DEMAND – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 3/1
Once considered one of the bankers of the meeting, the seven year old son of Walk In The Park now has questions to answer after a deeply disappointing effort in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown. Sent off at around 2/9, FINAL DEMAND was expected to dispatch his three rivals comfortably and further strengthen his festival claims. Instead, having enjoyed largely uncontested leads in his previous wins at Navan and Limerick, he came under pressure when pressed by stablemate Kaid d’Authie towards the end of the back straight. He made several errors and weakened in the straight, eventually being passed by Western Fold and beaten twelve and a half lengths into third. It is difficult to use the testing ground as an excuse, having won on surfaces described as soft, soft to heavy and heavy.It was a performance that left many searching for answers, including Paul Townend, who admitted he was never happy on him.
He was also beaten at the festival last year when sent off the 6/4 favourite for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, finishing third behind The New Lion and half a length behind The Yellow Clay, who has done little since to enhance the form. He will need to improve in the jumping department and see his race out a lot better to fend off a competitive field, including proven stayers with Cheltenham form such as Wendigo and The Big Westerner, plus several other interesting opponents.
In his favour, he has Willie Mullins in his corner, and the master trainer famously revived Gaelic Warrior from a Dublin Racing Festival disappointment to score at Cheltenham last season. Even so, at around 3/1, he looks worth opposing after such an underwhelming display last time. He certainly has plenty to prove against a strong line up on the Wednesday.
JERIKO DU REPONET – Kim Muir Challenge Cup – 4/1
There is no doubt that, on certain pieces of form, Nicky Henderson and J.P. McManus’s seven year old appears very well handicapped. JERIKO DU REPONET has strong handicap form at the major festivals, as well as some impressive efforts in novice hurdles. His famous owner loves a gamble in this race and he looks to have been laid out with it in mind all season.
However, he has yet to fully convince over fences. His jumping has let him down on several occasions and he has never won over three miles under rules, let alone the three miles two furlongs up the demanding Cheltenham hill. In what could be a large field, his jumping is likely to come under pressure against a host of rivals equally primed for the occasion and potentially just as well treated, including others from the same ownership, which makes him look worth opposing at around 4/1.
LOVE SIGN D’AUNOU – Champion Bumper – 4/1
The Champion Bumper is notoriously one of the most open contests of the Festival and among the hardest to assess, featuring a large field of talented, unexposed youngsters at the very start of their careers. Willie Mullins, unsurprisingly, boasts an exceptional record in the race, having saddled fourteen winners, and he is often represented by multiple leading contenders. He has also won four of the last five renewals, so it may seem foolish to oppose what appears to be his principal hope in LOVE SIGN D’AUNOU. However, at the prices, he looks worth taking on in a race packed with promising rivals.
Only five favourites have won the Champion Bumper in the last 25 years, underlining how difficult it can be for market leaders to justify their position. Even the Closutton camp have found it tricky to separate their top prospects. In 2020, Ferny Hollow at 11/1 stayed on strongly from midfield to beat the 10/11 favourite Appreciate It by two and a half lengths, while in 2021 Sir Gerhard at around 5/2 made all to defeat stablemate Kilcruit, the 10/11 favourite, by half a length.
This year’s favourite was an impressive wide margin winner of his sole start under rules in a heavy ground bumper at Naas. He is clearly a horse of ability, but he was allowed to dictate in testing conditions against inferior rivals who may not have handled the surface, and the form could flatter him slightly. Connections admitted afterwards they were not expecting such a dominant performance, which is reflected in the fact he was sent off at odds against. With several other strong contenders from his own yard and other leading stables, he looks worth opposing at a single figure price.
Odds correct at time of posting – 4:15pm Tuesday 3rd March
For those who aren’t already a member, you can become a racehorse owner with us from as little as £25 per share! View all of our horses available to purchase shares in HERE.
Please note that although Matt has uploaded the tips, he is not our Racing Club Insider – the insider will remain anonymous!
