After landing a double the previous weekend, last Saturday brought us back down to earth. Ballyfort ran well behind a well-handicapped rival but needs to cut out the mistakes, while Janora certainly ran like a 33/1 shot. I’m hopeful of bouncing back this weekend, with a fantastic feast of racing across Saturday and Sunday. If you can’t enjoy this weekend’s action, it might be time to find another sport!
There’s Grade 1 action at Down Royal, where Rebecca Curtis sends Haiti Couleurs for his seasonal reappearance in the Champion Chase, with Paul Townend an eye-catching booking. We also have plenty of quality jumps racing in England and, of course, the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland to look forward to.
Alongside Saturday’s main selections, I have two others to keep an eye on this weekend, one at Keeneland on Saturday night and another on Sunday’s excellent card at Worcester.
14:25 Wetherby – TAKE NO CHANCES (11/8 Generally)
TAKE NO CHANCES looks to have plenty in her favour here, and I fancy her to reverse last year’s form with Strong Leader, who beat her by just a neck in this race 12 months ago. She is 4lb better off at the weights this time and has the benefit of a recent run, having finished down the field in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow. That looked a nice prep run, as she probably needed the outing, while the step back up to three miles will suit her much better.
She ran consistently well in good races last season, including an impressive effort when travelling strongly before finishing a seven-length second in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree, where Strong Leader was pulled up. The Skelton yard is flying and has won two of the last ten renewals of this race, which is another positive, and this looks to have been an obvious target for the mare.
Strong Leader is clearly respected and goes well fresh, but he ended last season rather tamely and has a little to prove. I can see Take No Chances travelling and jumping better than her main rival throughout the race, and it could take a big effort from Sean Bowen to get the better of her, given Strong Leader was all out to win last year and now meets her on worse terms.
14:33 Ascot – TAPLEY (10/1 Generally Each Way)
This looks a competitive race, but TAPLEY makes appeal at the prices given his excellent recent form and fitness advantage over several of his rivals, who may well need their first run of the season. He has made a flying start for his new yard, winning both starts this autumn at Fontwell and Plumpton, and looked better than ever when stepping up in class to score at the latter track just 12 days ago, with the front pair pulling twenty lengths clear. You could argue he was fortunate to win that day, but he showed a good attitude to get his head in front, and the runner-up looks to have a good chance in an earlier race at Wetherby, which could give the form a boost.
The slight step up in trip is a small question mark, but he has won over an extended 2m6f before, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. He arrives here in the form of his life and, in a race where several of his rivals may be a little rusty, I fancy him to put his race fitness to good use and give us a good run for our money at an each-way price.
20:20 (GMT) Keeneland – NOTABLE SPEECH (1/1 Generally)
I always find it difficult to have a strong opinion on most of the Breeders’ Cup races, with such a mix of international contenders and horses that, let’s be honest, most of us, myself included, have never heard of. However, one horse I expect to get the job done on Saturday night is NOTABLE SPEECH.
He was successful in this race last year at Del Mar, where he showed his trademark turn of foot to motor home down the rail, making up plenty of ground to win comfortably by a length and a half.
There is little doubt that defending his title has been a key target. He followed the same preparation last year, winning the Woodbine Mile before going on to Breeders’ Cup success, and comfortably accounted for one of his main rivals, Deterministic, in that race this year despite not being ideally placed. Trainer Charlie Appleby also seems delighted with him heading into the race and confident of another big performance.
He is comfortably the highest-rated horse in the field and sets a clear standard, so odds of around even money make plenty of appeal to me. He may have to take a different route through the race this year with his draw, but considering he is the best horse in the field and has the tactical speed to overcome any potential trouble, I expect him to come out on top.
Hopefully, he can give us a nice winner to look forward to at 8:20pm on Saturday night, and I will certainly be getting involved.
15:05 Worcester – HIDDEN MOUNTAIN (11/4 Forecast Price)
Our Horses To Follow series has made a flying start, with several winners already, and Hidden Mountain is another who could add to that tally. He has made an impressive start for Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls when winning a Huntingdon bumper by 11 lengths, having previously shown plenty of promise on debut at Ayr behind a Grade 2 winner. He looks an exciting prospect for hurdles, and with the stable in good form, he should have every chance of making a winning debut in this decent maiden hurdle. At the time of writing, the forecast odds of 11/4 look very generous to me, and I would expect him to go off shorter than that.
SATURDAY SELECTIONS
14:25 Wetherby – TAKE NO CHANCES (11/8 Generally)
14:33 Ascot – TAPLEY (10/1 Generally Each Way)
20:20 (GMT) Keeneland – NOTABLE SPEECH (1/1 Generally)
SUNDAY SELECTION
15:05 Worcester – HIDDEN MOUNTAIN (11/4 Forecast Price)
*Odds correct at time of posting – 8:05pm Friday 30th October
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Please note that although Matt has uploaded the tips, he is not our Racing Club Insider – the insider will remain anonymous!
