After finding the crossbar a couple of times in recent weeks, it was great to get back in the winners’ enclosure last week as Blue Bolt justified our confidence with an impressive victory at Leopardstown. Attention turns back to Britain this weekend and we’ve got two selections to hopefully keep the momentum going, starting with a strong fancy on an excellent card at Newbury. We’ll also be taking aim at one of the biggest betting races of the season, with an each-way selection in the fiercely competitive Ayr Gold Cup.
14:12 Newbury – NABATI (5/1 Generally)
Arapaho Gold is a worthy favourite for the Mill Reef Stakes, but at the odds I’m happy to take him on. With eight runners in the line up, we can get three places on offer and I’d be particularly keen on backing NABATI for last years winning combination of Charlie Appleby and William Buick.
The selection actually raced against the favourite over C&D back in July, and was only just touched off by a neck. He’s now 3lbs better off with Arapaho Gold and that should be more than enough to reverse the form.
Charlie Appleby has his string in red-hot form (44% strike-rate over the past two weeks at the time of writing) and with three places on offer, you can back Nabati each way and have the insurance of getting your money back if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.
15:40 Ayr – FAR ABOVE DREAM (8/1 generally)
In a race like the Ayr Gold Cup, it always helps to look at recent trends for the winners to whittle down the field:
- 12/12 winners had run in the past seven weeks.
- 9/12 winners were aged between 4-6.
- 9/12 winners had an official rating of 95-104.
Just looking at those three trends removes 10 of the runners, including the favourite Binhareer. When you factor in that 8 of the last 9 winners were drawn in stall 12 or higher, and 7 of the last 9 were sent off 20/1 or shorter, we’re left with just five runners:
- Far Above Dream
- Fine Interview
- Evening Saigon
- Flash Harry
- Run Boy Run
Of those, I would be keen on Run Boy Run, but there hasn’t been a back-to-back winner of this race for almost 100 years, so I’ve come down on the side of FAR ABOVE DREAM.
James Owen’s 4YO has been in excellent form this year, winning twice and placing twice, with the other effort a sixth-place finish in the Stewards’ Cup. He put in a career-best performance to finish a close runner-up at York last month, and he looks set to play another big part here. With plenty of bookies offering 5-6 places (SkyBet offering seven places), Far Above Dream looks a cracking each-way bet here.
SATURDAY SELECTIONS
14:12 Newbury – NABATI (5/1 Generally)
15:40 Ayr – FAR ABOVE DREAM (8/1 Generally)
*Odds correct at time of posting – 7:25pm Thursday 17th September
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Please note that although Tom has uploaded the tips, he is not our Racing Club Insider – the insider will remain anonymous!
