We have some superb racing this Saturday as some big reputations are put on the line. At Newbury we of course have the Grade 2 Denman Chase where Bravemansgame will take on 7 rivals and it would be great to see him get back into the winner’s enclosure, but this will be no easy task for the former King George winner. He is definitely the class act in the race but hasn’t been seen at his best for some time now and he will need to show his old spark to get the job done at Newbury. Over at Warwick, we get to see L’Eau Du Sud try and enhance his Arkle credentials. This will be a really good opportunity for the Dan Skelton trained novice to show us what he is made of as he tries to cement his place as a genuine contender at Cheltenham in March. This should be a really informative weekend and outside of the big races, I also have three selections that I think need to be taken advantage of!
14:40 Warwick – GALA MARCEAU (Next Best) 5/4 generally
My first selection of the weekend comes over at Warwick in the 2m5f mares hurdle, and there are plenty of out-of-form sorts in the lineup. You Wear It Well won the mares novice hurdle at Cheltenham but has been out of form for a long time now and is becoming harder to trust with each run. If she recaptured her old form, then she would be in here with a chance, but she has been way off the boil and is now very easy to take on.
A similar story can be said for West Balboa, who was a one-time 3/1 favourite for the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but failed to make any impact on the racecourse. She is another that has gone downhill since and you would have to put a lot of faith in her recapturing her best form to win this.
The bet has to be GALA MARCEAU (5/4 generally) here though for the Willie Mullins team. She is a proven top quality mare who even beat Lossiemouth in the Spring Juvenile a few years back and capped off that season by hammering Losange Bleu by 7 lengths, and stablemate Zarak The Brave by a further 5 lengths in Auteuil. Now we haven’t seen Gala Marceau for 280 days now but if she turned up in anywhere near her form from France then she would be extremely hard to pass. Some horses off the back of long breaks are hard to get on board with but Willie Mullins has been patient with her and the fact she is due to line up here suggests she is well and ready to run. I am very surprised to see her odds against this weekend and anything other than a win would be a disappointment here. The 11/8 looks a penalty kick when you weigh up the opposition here and Gala Marceauu will be very tough to beat.
15:35 Newbury – WASHINGTON (Each-Way) 9/1 generally
Selection number two is going to come in the deeply competitive 18-runner William Hill Hurdle. The current favourite at the time of writing is the Hughie Morrison trained Secret Squirrel who is a real fan favourite, but I don’t think the tactics of this race will suit him as well as they did last time out when he won at Windsor, and that would be the concern about backing him at such short odds this weekend.
Lump Sum comes into this race off top weight which will be no easy task, but the race doesn’t look as strong as it has in recent years with regards to class angles and with plenty of places available, he would have to come under consideration at a big price. You can currently get around 25/1 for his chances and the fact that Dylan Johnston takes off 3lbs brings him into the equation. This is a Welsh Champion Hurdle winner who is sure to get competitive for the place money and he would be dangerous to underestimate!
The one to side with here though is the Harry Derham trained WASHINGTON (9/1 generally), who can be backed at a double figure price at the time of writing this. He goes against the trends for this race with him being a 9yo now, but it doesn’t put me off with Washington as he has really come into his own this season and his mark of 133 surely underestimates his true ability. He is a strong travelling sort who has won both starts this season which includes a win last time out at Fairyhouse, and the form of that race has worked out very well with the runner up Enniskerry subsequently winning the big handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas. Despite his age, Washington looks a much more ready-made hurdler this season and is still very much unexposed at this level. I would be quite confident that he will go off shorter than his current price and is without doubt, one of the best handicapped horses in this field. He is the one to be on side with on the basis there are plenty of places available.
16:10 Newbury – HERAKLES WESTWOOD (NAP) 7/4 generally
The best bet of the day comes in the 3-mile novice handicap chase, where we have a decent lineup, but there is one horse in particular that stands out on these terms. Saint Davy is a horse I have always liked, and he looks like a real genuine staying chaser, but his jumping has been a slight letdown when it’s really mattered and giving weight away to this field will be no easy task.
A similar story can be said for the Ben Pauling trained Pic Roc who has struggled to get his head in front as much as he should have and is seemingly proving to be a little weak in the finish of his races. He may not be too far away again here though but has become hard to trust at the same time.
Surely the bet here though is the rapidly improving Warren Greatrex trained HERAKLES WESTWOOD (7/4 generally), who has been a revelation this year and has just improved from run to run. He is a course and distance winner who jumps supremely well and the fact he is on a steep upward curve makes him a very appealing selection here. He was beaten on chase debut off a mark of 116 but then went on to win at Newbury and Windsor and now runs off 129. This still looks lenient though after the way he powered home last time out and he could be hard to peg back here again at Newbury. He does take on better opposition again here but has shown a lot of promise and doesn’t look like he has finished improving just yet. I am confident that Herakles Westwood can continue to take another step forward and he looks more than capable of winning again off this 3lb higher mark. This is a horse going places and fast!
SATURDAY SELECTIONS
NAP: 4:10 Newbury – HERAKLES WESTWOOD (7/4 generally)
Next Best: 2:40 Warwick – GALA MARCEAU (5/4 generally)
Each-Way: 3:35 Newbury – WASHINGTON (9/1 generally)
